Monday, July 13, 2009

US Dollar Looking For a Catalyst to Break Congestion


Though price action for the world’s reserve currency remained extraordinarily volatile this past week; the heightened activity wouldn’t translate into direction. Aside from the Japanese yen, the dollar’s exchange rates with its major counterparts were ultimately little changed from the previous Friday’s close, reflecting a general lack of market-moving economic data and a tempered interest in risk appetite as the G8 deliberated on the path the world’s financial leaders will take in tending to the global recovery.

Dollar Regains Upper Hand As Risk Appetite Abates

The U.S. dollar was higher against most major currencies Friday, regaining the upper hand as concerns about the global economic outlook curbed investor appetite for riskier assets.


But the dollar's gains were hardly dramatic. Traders noted major currency pairs remain largely range-bound.


"It feels like we're already in the summer doldrums," said Daragh Maher, currency strategist at Calyon Bank.


Markets for now are hung up by uncertainty over the shape of any future economic recovery, he said. Economic data at this point "can be spun either way," likely leaving currency markets next week to key off of any earnings surprises from U.S. companies.


In economic news, U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply in early July, according to a survey released Friday by the University of Michigan and Reuters, breaking a string of increases and underscoring the still-weak state of the economy.


Sentiment fell to 64.6 from 70.8 in June, much lower than the level of 70.5 pegged in a survey of economists by MarketWatch.


The dollar index (DXY), a measure of the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, recently traded at 80.240, up from 79.879 in late North American trading on Thursday.


On Wall Street, U.S. stocks finished mostly lower. The S&P 500 stock index (SPX) fell 0.4% to 879.13 points.


"Given the sour mood on Wall Street this past week, we suspect the odds for further stock losses are decent, and if this bears out, the greenback can be expected to continue its recent trend of rallying versus the euro and commodity currencies, while losing ground to the yen," said analysts at Action Economics.


The euro bought $1.3935, down from $1.4036 late Thursday. Earlier in the session, the euro hit an intraday low of $1.3876.


The euro fell "on a report from the German media that there are at least 10 Eastern European nations that are talking to the IMF about emergency loans," wrote analysts at BMO Capital Markets.


The report was published in Germany's Handelsblatt newspaper, which said that Bulgaria, Croatia and Macedonia are among the countries negotiating with the IMF.


In other currencies trading, the dollar was up 0.9% to 8.1830 South African rand on Friday.


Dollar slips vs. yen


The dollar bought 92.37 Japanese yen, slipping from 92.99 yen Thursday. The dollar tumbled to 91.81 yen Wednesday, its lowest level versus a broadly higher Japanese currency in more than four months.


Maher noted that the yen was one exception to this week's range-bound activity, crediting its surge to a break through key technical levels.


The yen looks set to maintain its momentum going into next week, said Kenneth Broux, market economist at Lloyds TSB.


"With participants set to tread carefully and pondering over possible earnings surprises from the U.S. banks next week, and [Ministry of Finance] data showing strong buying of [Japanese government bonds], it is hard to see the Japanese yen dramatically reverse its bullish set-up in the near term," he said.


The Bank of Japan is scheduled to hold a regular policy meeting next week, and could extend some of its programs designed to add liquidity to the nation's financial markets.


The British pound recently traded at $1.6198, down from $1.6338 late Thursday.


Sterling was boosted Thursday after the Bank of England surprised markets by not expanding the size of its quantitative easing program from its current level of 125 billion pounds ($202 billion).


In Italy, leaders of the Group of Eight economic powers wrapped up a three-day summit that broke little new ground on the economic front.


Officials of the Group of Five emerging economies, which include China and India, met with G8 leaders on Thursday.


Chinese officials reiterated their call for a re-examination of the dollar's role as the world's primary reserve currency, but the remarks caused no major ripple in currency markets.


British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and German Chancellor Angela Merkel played down the remarks, noting they weren't part of official G8 discussions.


"We had comments from the Chinese, but they were nothing we haven't already heard," Maher said.

Sterling Finds Support


  • The dollar and yen fell on Thursday as stabilizing stocks reduced safe haven demand. US initial jobless claims fell below 600K for the first time since January, indicating the US recession is abating. The S&P 500 rose 3.12 points to 882.68. The yen was little changed against the greenback but fell in cross trades. The European currencies rose as risk aversion subsided. The Australian and Canadian dollars advanced on improving risk sentiment and rising commodity prices.

  • The GBP/USD rallied after the Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, as expected, and announced no expansion of its quantitative easing policy. The pair found support in the 1.60 area, which is the uptrend that goes back to the beginning of the equity rally. If this diagonal support is broken, the GBP/USD will probably fall to 1.55. There is resistance in the 1.66 area from the triple-top.

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Part I: Learning the Basics of Charting Theory


Chart patterns can imply certain underlying market tendencies. In the first part of this tutorial, learn the basics of chart patterns and how to apply them when trading. Certain patterns, such as the head and shoulders, can suggest a reversal of a previous trend. Rectangles, pennants, and triangles, however, may suggest a continuation of a prevailing trend.

Part II: Customizing the Scanning Process


Learn how to effectively scan for patterns using VT Trader to save you both time and effort! The second part of this tutorial explains how you can customize your scan results by modifying your filters in order to help you assess the market. Each pattern is presented with four indicators to gauge its quality: initial trend, uniformity, and clarity, and when applicable, the breakout strength.

Part III: Trading Approaches Using Charting Theory


Learn how to effectively scan for patterns using VT Trader to save you both time and effort! The second part of this tutorial explains how you can customize your scan results by modifying your filters in order to help you assess the market. Each pattern is presented with four indicators to gauge its quality: initial trend, uniformity, and clarity, and when applicable, the breakout strength.

Risk Management Tools

Both new and experienced traders make good and bad trades over a long period of time. The difference between them is that the more experienced trader has a grasp of the importance of risk management as an integral part of a successful Forex trading strategy. Proper risk management can maximize the positive and minimize the negative aspects of the regular ups and downs of trading. In addition to basic limit and stop orders, CMS Forex offers a range of risk management tools that can give you an edge over the market.

Custom Forex Alerts

VT Trader™ offers audio and visual notification features to ensure that you know the status of your positions and the market, especially while the trading platform is running in the background. VT Trader™ can alert you when prices hit certain levels, when your positions are executed or when market movements trigger a level on your technical indicator setup. You can choose which sound files the custom alerts play. Customizable alerts keep you on top of all your trades while you are attending to other tasks on your computer or if you have stepped away from your desk. Say an important movement takes place in the middle of the night, you can even utilize an audible alert as an alarm while you are sleeping.

100+ Technical Indicators

CMS Forex offers over 100 of the most powerful technical analysis indicators available to traders. Below is a full alphabetical listing of the technical indicators available in CMS Forex’s currency trading system, VT Trader™. For an overview of any indicator listed below, simply click on its name. For an in-depth article on the use and implementation of a particular indicator you may click on the In-Depth Article icon next to the listing. With VT Trader™, you are able to modify existing indicators as well as create custom technical indicators from scratch.

Customizable Forex Trading Interface

Tailor VT Trader™’s interface to suit your unique trading style and preferences.

www.cmsfx.com VT Trader™ 2.0 features an intuitive interface with tools placed within easy reach and a clear icon based navigation. Highs, Lows, Bid, and Ask prices are prominently featured in our new Quotes Board; The Quotes Board's instruments can be conveniently detached and displayed outside of VT Trader™, so that you can stay on top of your Forex trading even when you have the platform window minimized.

www.cmsfx.com With the recent addition of docking, tabbing, and "auto-hide" functions, you can optimize the layout of your workspace. The detach and docking functions allow you to rearrange your windows to your unique specifications. File multiple windows together using tabs for better organization or choose to "auto hide" windows you do not immediately need. Do you trade with one large chart showing multiple indicators? Or do you prefer several charts open for a currency pair, with different time periods, indicators, lines, and notes? VT Trader™'s ability to customize your trading environment is only limited by your personal preferences.

www.cmsfx.com You can modify the appearance of your charts by choosing new chart colors, sizes, line styles or fonts. Organize the tools you use most, according to your personal preferences and save up to 200 individual templates. Import or export these templates across multiple computers. You can even utilize a dual monitor setup and turn your PC into a dedicated Forex trading workstation!

The appearance of technical indicators can also be customized to your specifications. For instance, you may modify line widths, styles, and colors of each technical indicator or adjust their transparency. The ability to change indicator properties optimizes visibility when using multiple indicators on one chart. VT Trader™ allows you freedom in platform organization so that you can enjoy a truly personalized trading experience.

Chart Based Trading


VT Trader™ is among the first Forex trading software packages to allow you to trade directly on the chart. Point and click to open or close positions, drag and drop to maneuver stop and limit orders, zoom in or out to view overall trends – all directly on the graphical Forex chart.

Open positions are intuitive to monitor as they are visible on the chart screen and are easily identified as profitable or unprofitable, as is their distance from the current market price. You can choose from several chart styles from basic bar or line charts to the more powerful candlestick, Heikein-Ashi, and even Renko.

The VT Trader™’s chart doubles as an interactive canvas where you can draw multiple trend lines and implement analysis tools including Fibonacci levels and arcs, moving averages, Gann fan lines, and regression lines. In addition, you can select any number of technical indicators to display on the chart at one time. Choose from over 100 technical indicators or design your own.

There is no limit to the amount of currency charts you can display. For your convenience, you may customize your layout across multiple monitors and save your personalized display settings as templates.

With VT Trader™’s attractive chart-based interface and ergonomically placed tools, the professional Forex trader has a user-friendly and fully customizable trading environment at his fingertips.

An Advanced Forex Trading Platform


CMS Forex unveils the next edition of its advanced Forex trading platform, VT Trader™ 2.0. Our comprehensive trading software sports a new efficient and intuitive interface with a variety of ways to personally organize your workspace. VT Trader™ 2.0 also offers an expanded arsenal of VT Mobile Trader fundamental and technical resources. Enhance your Forex trading experience with easy access to powerful tools, highly developed charting technology, Dow Jones news, and an advanced level of customization, sophistication and convenience that sets VT Trader™ apart from other Forex trading platforms.

A next generation forex trading platform designed for active traders looking for an edge

FOREXTrader is our most robust, feature rich platform. This Windows-based application offers a highly intuitive user interface, advanced customization features and a full suite of professional trading tools.

Advanced charting functionality allows you to spot trends in the market. Flip between multiple charts and trade setups, layer on technical studies, even visually track and manage your open orders and positions directly on the charts.

Customize your trading layouts to suit your style. Try our pre-set layouts or create and save your own. Tear-off windows ensure that you're never far from your next trade, even when working in other programs.

Friday, May 29, 2009

Getting Started in Forex

Getting Started in Forex offers an overview of forex trading, including key concepts, ideas, and market terminology. In this webinar you'll learn:
  • About the major currencies and how to interpret currency quotes.

  • How to place trades and understand order types, as well as managing positions.

  • How to read charts and perform basic technical analysis using ForexCharts by eSignal, our professional charting program.

  • Plus a live Q&A session.

Getting Started in Forex

Getting Started in Forex offers an overview of forex trading, including key concepts, ideas, and market terminology. In this webinar you'll learn:
  • About the major currencies and how to interpret currency quotes.

  • How to place trades and understand order types, as well as managing positions.

  • How to read charts and perform basic technical analysis using ForexCharts by eSignal, our professional charting program.

  • Plus a live Q&A session.

Weekly Market Call

Join Brian for a 45 minute interactive discussion that will prepare you for the upcoming trading week.
  • Brian Dolan Review upcoming economic releases, along with market expectations

  • Discuss major market "themes" that will likely drive price action in the next five trading days

  • Analyze short-term charts for emerging patterns and important support & resistance levels

  • Interact with Brian in a live Q&A session
Brian will cover topics from his Weekly Strategy & The Week Ahead research reports. In the wrap up Q&A period, Brian will be available to personally respond to your questions.

Orders and Trades

Generally speaking, there are three types of Forex orders:

1. Market order – an order to buy or sell a currency

2. Limit order – an order to capture gains from advantageous market movements

3. Stop order – an order to forego further losses from disadvantageous market movements

If a trader believes the value of a base currency will increase relative to its pair, the trader should place a Market Order to buy the currency at its “Ask” price. However, in order to protect against the risk of significant losses, a prudent trader will simultaneously place a Stop Order to sell the currency if the “Bid” price drops to a certain level. In addition, in order to capture profits, a trader will often place a Limit Order to sell the currency if the “Bid” price rises to a certain level.

Currency Quotes

Reading a foreign exchange quote is simple if you remember two things:

1. The first currency listed is the base currency

2. The value of the base currency is always 1

A currency pair quote is comprised of a bid/ask price expressed in the following format:

EUR/USD: 1.2836 / 1.2839 or EUR/USD: 1.2836/39


The first number in the series represents the bid price, the cost of selling the Euro against the Dollar, or going ‘short' on the Euro.

The second number represents the ask price, the cost of buying the Euro against the dollar, or going ‘long’ on the Euro.

Currency Quotes

Reading a foreign exchange quote is simple if you remember two things:

1. The first currency listed is the base currency

2. The value of the base currency is always 1

A currency pair quote is comprised of a bid/ask price expressed in the following format:

EUR/USD: 1.2836 / 1.2839 or EUR/USD: 1.2836/39


The first number in the series represents the bid price, the cost of selling the Euro against the Dollar, or going ‘short' on the Euro.

The second number represents the ask price, the cost of buying the Euro against the dollar, or going ‘long’ on the Euro.

The difference between the ask price and the bid price is called the pip spread.

FOREX Basics

"Forex" stands for foreign exchange; it is also known as FX. It is the buying and selling of currencies. Unlike stocks or futures, there is no centralized exchange for Forex. All transactions happen via phone or electronic network. Because of this, Forex is among the most liquid of trading instruments. In fact, the daily trading volume of currencies is $ 3.2 Trillion – which is more than all other world market exchange trading combined!

More than 85% of Forex trading volume occurs in the “Major” currencies: US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar.

In a Forex transaction, currencies trade in pairs. Therefore, a trader buys one currency while simultaneously selling its pair. That is, a trader exchanges the sold currency for the one being bought. So when a trader trades Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD), the trader is actually exchanging the Euro for the US Dollar or vice versa. And when a trader trades US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), the trader is actually exchanging the US Dollars for Japanese Yen or vice versa.

The chart below displays some major and minor currency pairs and their associated trading terminology.

Symbol

Currency Pair

Trading Terminology

GBPUSD

British Pound / US Dollar

"Cable"

EURUSD

Euro / US Dollar

"Euro"

USDJPY

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

"Dollar Yen"

USDCHF

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

"Dollar Swiss", or "Swissy"

USDCAD

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

"Dollar Canada"

AUDUSD

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

"Aussie Dollar"

EURGBP

Euro / British Pound

"Euro Sterling"

EURJPY

Euro / Japanese Yen

"Euro Yen"

EURCHF

Euro / Swiss Franc

"Euro Swiss"

GBPCHF

British Pound / Swiss Franc

"Sterling Swiss"

GBPJPY

British Pound / Japanese Yen

"Sterling Yen"

CHFJPY

Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen

"Swiss Yen"

NZDUSD

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

"New Zealand Dollar" or "Kiwi"

USDZAR

US Dollar / South African Rand

"Dollar Zar" or "South African Rand"

GLDUSD

Spot Gold

"Gold"

SLVUSD

Spot Silver

"Silver"

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Forex Daily Outlook

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) weakened as risk sentiment stepped up a notch on the back of better than expected economic data. February Durable Goods Orders rose +1.7% vs. -2% forecast. New Home Sales (FEB) rose +4.7% vs. -13.7% previously. The most interesting story was the slip by Geithner that he would consider a super Global Reserve Currency which was quickly clarified. Crude Oil closed down -$1.21 ending the New York session at $52.77 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 12 points or 0.82% whilst the Dow Jones up 89 points or 1.17%. Looking ahead, Q4 Final GDP forecast at -6.5% vs. -6.2% previously. Also released, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 650K vs. 646K. Full Story

Ready To Sell Dollars? How Long Have You Got?

Thursday wrapped up another day of strange intra-day movement in regard to historical commodity/currency links, but the markets are not ready to swallow the Fed's requirement that they de-value the dollar. Ready? Full Story

Chart of the Day - 3/26/2009 – USD/JPY


Yen weakness this week has translated into a USD/JPY recovery that currently appears to be targeting a potential uptrend continuation ... Full Story

Should You Have More Than One Forex Dealer?

I think that is certainly a great question to ask, because when financial institutions run into financial trouble, as many are now, the account holders are the last group to recoup their money, if they ever do. When it comes to your forex trading account, there are some great solutions to deal with this potential uncertainty. Full Story

Gbp/Usd Big Picture Elliott Wave


This pair has broken through the support line, with the wave B leg in place with the top around 1.4775. Wave C looks already to be on the underway, looking for a five wave decline down to the 38.2% support area. Full Story

The Bernanke Dollar Call

By Joseph Trevisani, Chief Market Analyst FX Solutions The spectre haunting Federal Reserve monetary policy is the fear of deflation. A prolonged period of falling prices presses down on both the productive and the consumption sides of the economy. Businesses lose pricing power and face shrinking revenues even if they maintain sales levels. Consumers, frightened by job losses and discouraged by the collapse in family wealth postpone purchases, particularly of large items like homes and cars. Businesses with falling revenues fire workers, who buy less and in turn business production takes another leg down and employment follows. Historically deflation is rare and associated only with... Full Story

Reversal Pattern - EUR/USD Changing Course?

While I am not a fan of referring to candle patterns using names, occasionally I become interested in a candle pattern. Of particular interest is the 3 bar reversal patterns on a daily chart, which has just occurred on the EUR/USD pair. Three daily bars that deviate from the immediate price direction and all close higher or lower can reveal important information about where price is likely to head. It is not always accurate, however it accurate more often than not and if you were forced to use this input alone, you would likely make money given that you had good trade management. Instead of rewriting a lot of things I have already written, I am simply going cite to a more in depth... Full Story

A world currency moves nearer after Tim Geithner's slip

This is how matters quickly escalate in geo-finance. China's suggestion – backed by Russia, Brazil, and India, and clearly aimed at breaking US dollar hegemony – is making its way onto the agenda of the G20 Summit next week. 'Dollar-dämmerung' no longer looks so far-fetched. China's paper, by Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, is couched in understated language – more a 'thought experiment' than a declaration of monetary war. His ideas could be mistaken for the musings of an academic theorist. Nobody should be fooled by decorum. Full Story

Roubini Says Stocks Will Drop as Banks Go ‘Belly Up’

U.S. stocks will fall and the government will nationalize more banks as the economy contracts through the end of 2009, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted last year’s economic crisis. “The stock market is a bit ahead of the real macroeconomic and financial news,” Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and the chairman of consulting firm Roubini Global Economics, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in London today. “We’ll have some major banks going belly up that will need to be taken over.” The global equity rebound in March that sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its best monthly advance in 17 years is a... Full Story

Dollar Strong, But for How Long?

As we approach New York closing, markets are still in a euphoric mood, with DOW JONES up and S&P 500 so far its biggest monthly rally for many years! The markets are clearly in a more positive mood these days, and news today that economic growth was at its lowest did not seem to make any difference... Full Story

USD/CAD - Yet Another Pennant Pattern


Similar to other dollar-based pairs, USD/CAD (a daily chart of which is shown) is displaying a clear inverted pennant consolidation ... Full Story

March 27 Market Commentary and Technical Levels


Fri, 27th of March, 2009 March 27 Market Commentary and Technical Levels By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com) EURUSD Outlook EURUSD still made no significant movement yesterday, trapped between 1.3735 – 1.3435 area. We have no clear direction so far and remain in the “no trade zone”. Daily CCI just cross the 100 line down suggesting a potential bearish view, but as long as price stay above 1.3435 the bearish scenario is not yet confirmed. Consistent movement below 1.3435 could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.2990 area. EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances: S1= 1.3467 S2= 1.3408 S3= 1.3323 R1= 1.3611 R2= 1.3696 R3= 1.3755 Full Story

News from the G7


The EUR plummeted against the USD and the JPY this morning after the G7 meeting made a declaration of ‘broad principles’ and postponed the real challenges until the meeting of the G20 in April

Towards 7am GMT today the EUR was worth 1.2747 USD compared to 1.2856 on Friday night – a fall of over 100 pips. The EUR lost 150 against the JPY, opening to day at 116.80 JPY compared to 118.30 JPY at close on Friday. The USD also fell against the JPY, opeing today at 91.63 JPY compared with 92.01 at close on Friday evening.

This strength of the JPY seems to ignore the official statistics released this morning which show that the GDP of Japan, the second largest global economy, fell by 12.7% of the annuam rate for the three months from October to December (-3.3% from the previous quarter). This was its worst economic contraction in 35 years.

Turbulence on the Forex

At Sunday night’s opening of the Forex traders saw a huge gap which illustrates the lack of effectiveness, if not the impotence, of the largest economies in the world – represented by the G7.

As early as 23.00 on Sunday evening EUR/USD opened 60 pips lower than its Friday closing and GBP/USD had gained 120 pips before the first trade!

The G7 failed to produce concrete decisions and lacked firmness towards protectionism. These two factors combined with the poor coordination of the member countries, has reduced risk aversion which in turn has propelled the JPY and the USD upwards.

This is an interesting week for forex traders. In the U.S. yesterday was a public holiday – Presidents Day. In Japan the impact of the financial crisis – Japanese GDP down -3.3% and industrial production down 10% – was highlighted by the resignation of the Finance Minister. At the same time China announced that they had experienced a loss of 32.6% in foreign investments in one year.

Lack of clear policy threatens the EUR

The EUR fell against the USD overnight because investors are concerned about the deteriorating economic situation in Europe. These concerns were heightened yesterday when Germany’s Chancellor Merkel said “I will not allow Germany to participate in any speculation.” ie : Germany will not promise to offer financial support to those insolvent countries in the eurozone.

Merkel’s announcement caused traders to sell the EUR moving the situation within the Euro Zone from bad to worse. Investors are worried about the financial soundness of several Euro Zone countries including Greece and Ireland and Eastern Europe countries like Hungary and Ukraine. As a result the EUR is declining. Towards 07.00 GMT this morning the EUR stood at 1.2594 USD a fall form 1.2673 USD overnight. Against the JPY, the EUR fell to 118.56 from 119.35 overnight.

Several Central European currencies have experienced a sharp decline in recent weeks because of concerns about the status of the banks in these countries and fears of massive capital withdrawals.The bleak outlook within the Euro Zone is exacerbated because despite these growing concerns, governments have not adopted any significant budgetary measures. There is a lack of clear policy direction which only reinforces concerns about the recession and weakens the EUR.Elsewhere : In the U.S. the dollar was supported by the rise in producer prices in January, increasing by 0.8% compared to December after five consecutive months of decline.

News Flash - UBS Chief Resigns

UBS Chief Rohner has tendered his resignation and will be replaced by Credit Suisse CEO Oswald Gruebel with immediate effect, the bank announced today.

UBS has lost billions of dollars in the financial crisis and is also presently facing a legal dispute with U.S. over tax evasion probe on UBS’s americans account holders. UBS annual loss in year 2008 stands at about US$17 billion dollars, the largest full-year loss in Swiss corporate history. Loss could be further extended with the worsening of the Eastern European countries economy.

Australian dollar higher on unexpected rate decision


As we approach another cycle of risk aversion, with the dollar staring as the head master of risk aversion haven, (taking the lead out of the Japanese Yen which clearly lost it’s allure lately) we start today’s London trading session with a strong performance of the Australian dollar verses major pairs.

The move did come as a surprise, after the Australian central bank (RBA) unexpectedly left rates unchanged on tonight’s meeting. The market was counting on a slash of at least 0.25% from 3.25% to 3.00% on overnight borrowing costs.

Consequently, demand for the AUD rose sharply overnight.

AUDUSD is fighting its way up this morning, closing on the first main resistance level at 0.6415,
I expect it to have some difficulty in clearly breaching above this level today, especially, if the Dollar will continue its global bullish trend.

Monday’s trading starts with more pressure on the dollar

After Friday’s sell off, the Dollar continues to trade lower against major currencies at thebeginning of this week.

The current market sentiment indicates risk appetite is high, stimulating investors to continueand sell the dollar.

This morning we can see EURUSD aiming for its major resistance level at 1.3. This level servedtrue barrier for the pair in the last six months. Many attempts to break above 1.3 did notreach higher than 1.3080 before a serious correction took place. It will be interesting to see if thecurrent environment can supply enough fuel for EURUSD to break and trade clearly above as a 1.3080.

GBPUSD however, turns to be much more resilient this Monday, already trading around 1.42.
If the current dollar sentiment will continue to favor risk, we can expect to see 1.45 get printedthis week.

Tip of the day: try to keep a straight line with the market, that is, if the dollar is weak againstmost majors, don’t go ahead and buy it. Pay attention to EURGBP, as soon as the dollar willregain some of its power back, this pair should head up once more. Conversely, if the Poundcontinues to trade higher vs the dollar, while EURUSD is still not able to clearly breach 1.3 andbeyond this should take EURGBP to lower levels today.

Yen, Dollar haven status faded on stock rally


Yesterday was a good day on wall street, with the dow Jones closing up 6.84% after the U.S Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner elaborated on hid plan to sop up mortgage debt and other soured assets.

This of course affected the demand for safe haven currencies in the forex market, with a pretty obvious move, the Yen and the dollar lost ground against most major currencies.

USDJPY has fully recovered from itstwo daydive to 93.5, this morning trades around 98.5, the 100 target looks closer then ever.

AUDJPY: this pair will potentially hit a very important resistance area 70 after breaking above its two and a half month high at 68.33.

GBPUSD: was topping at 1.4730 , might have some difficulty to advance further before the release of the Great Britain CPI and Inflation Report figures at 9:30 and 9:45 GMT accordingly.